A peek into the crystal ball

Column by Joe Webb
Posted 1/8/21

Here are a few predictions for the 2021-22 political cycle. 1. R-E-C-A-L-L-S will D-I-S-A-P-P-E-A-R.  Recalls didn’t work because they didn’t garner enough signatures. But they still wouldn’t …

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A peek into the crystal ball

Posted

Here are a few predictions for the 2021-22 political cycle.

1. R-E-C-A-L-L-S will D-I-S-A-P-P-E-A-R. 

Recalls didn’t work because they didn’t garner enough signatures. But they still wouldn’t have worked even if the signatures had been procured to force a recall election. Except for the governor, every party can retain the political office which the officeholder leaves via a vacancy committee. An elected official who faces a recall attempt can be replaced by a member of their party if they resign. The choice is mostly left to a vacancy committee, but if there were enough recall signatures garnered against Colorado’s attorney general, for example, the attorney general would resign and Jared Polis would then appoint another Democrat to replace them. Recalling an elected official is incredibly short-sighted as a political strategy for this reason. Lightning struck in 2013 because of complacency. It will not strike twice. Nothing beats good old-fashioned organization and campaigning for a candidate. 

2. Lauren Boebert will inspire many to follow in her footsteps. In the words of one potential candidate who contacted me, “If she can do it, why can’t I?” Some of these candidates will be qualified, others not so much. Some will be successful electorally and others will not be. The bottom line is that Lauren Boebert showed that when the odds are stacked against you that political success is possible regardless of whatever detractors may say. On the GOP side, there will be more like Lauren Boebert. The Democrats will also have several Lauren Boebert-like candidates emerge.

3. Fresh candidates for office will emerge. Familiar faces running for office will be at a disadvantage to newcomers. People who’ve been associated with political endeavors forever will be seen as career politicians. If you run for office over and over again, eventually the public will tire of you-some candidates sooner rather than later. It would be better for a legislator to permit themselves to be termed out rather than seeking a higher office. Do something else privately to better your community and Colorado. If you have made a positive impression, people will remember you because you are likable. At that point higher office becomes feasible.

4. Republicans will rebound. This is true in both Colorado and Jefferson County. Nothing is permanent. What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up and rebound. I expect gains in the State House and the State Senate. We will also flip at least one statewide office if not more. When one party is on top there tends to be a presumption that they will win. Once you lose, of course, you will be disabused of that notion. Republicans will make sharp gains only because in prior years they, unfortunately, have had sharp losses.

5. More compassion will exist. Many have endured sharp losses both personal and businesses due to the pandemic. These losses will be spoken about by both sides over the next two years. The pandemic will be debated in Jeffco and Colorado long after it is conquered.

I wonder how many of these predictions will be correct. Happy New Year!

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